Morning of the last day on the road

"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo) 05/04/2020 at 08:49 • Filed to: None

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We have about a 9 hour drive from Flagstaff to Fresno. Toby woke me up at 2:30 am. He had to go out, and his need was desperate, because he went right away when I got him outside. While I wasn’t thrilled to be up, I was proud of him that he is well trained enough to wake me before pooping in a hotel room. I couldn’t fall back asleep, so I decided to stop laying awake in bed and make coffee instead.

Toby, as usual, has his own agenda.

There are interesting and crazy days we live in. We all have ideas about whether state, local, and federal authorities have made the right decisions, and really only time will tell whether “locking down” (I am not sure if it is a lockdown if you can still go to the grocery store and Home Depot) was appropriate, or whether it was the unneeded introduction of economic despair. Wherever you fall on this, it would appear that forced suppression of the economy is in its final days. In California, individual businesses and entire towns and counties are opening in defiance of the Governor. Right or wrong, it would seem the people are done granting the state this level of authority, which means it is over.

But this post is not about whether these courses of action are right or wrong. My experience during this time leaves me with only one thought. Whether it is a virus or the actions of powerful people, there is only so much control we have over our lives. But the threat of illness or the threat of government only has as much power over us as we allow it to. Live your life from day to day as best you can. You’re better off if you have a dog; they live in the moment. A comfy bed or a ball to play with brings them that moment of joy that you can share with them. I hope you are all caring for yourselves physically and mentally. Avoid the news except in small doses. There is nothing there for us.

Toby sends hugs - even to those who hate me. Hell, especially to them. They need it the most. This trip has taught me that right now is the best time to take a long drive in a car you like - it will do you good.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 09:04

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That stat in The Big Short about “40,000 people die for every one percent increase in the unemployment rate” was fully vetted and found to be, if anything, an understatement on  the magnitude of the problem.

30 million have already filed unemployment claims in the US alone . I’m watching to see if the “follow the science” crowd can do any mathematics.

Be safe and best wishes to Toby. He looks like he’s ready to be home.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 09:23

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Good morning. Toby hugs are much appreciated.

At the very least it is a nice time to get out and about alone. Too bad I am super high risk so no matter what I will be returning to socialization late.

TheRealBicycleBuck > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 09:27

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Despite our notions of independence and freedom, I believe many people finally realized that they aren’t as independent as they think and they are willing to trade “freedom” for safety. People are funny. They don’t want someone telling them what to do, yet are quick to blame someone else when something goes wrong. Safety regulations are an excellent example of this - don’t make me wear a seatbelt, but be prepared for me to sue the pants off you if I get injured in a wreck.

I realize that I’m one of the lucky ones who was able to stay fully employed. I’m also one of the unlucky ones who have lost family to COVID-19. I also have a friend who is sick, has been tested, and is awaiting results while convalescing at home.

It’s all about how much risk we are willing to take on as a society and how much risk we are willing to accept from other people’s behaviors. As you have rightly pointed out, people suck at wearing masks. People suck at maintaining hygiene - sneezing and coughing without covering their mouths, not washing their hands, touching their face, etc.

Find a way to trace the source of infection and give us the ability to sue the crap out of the person who passed it on, then I’m sure everyone will be onboard with opening everything up and risking the lives of our loved ones.

In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your trip and give Toby pats from me.

Thomas Donohue > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 05/04/2020 at 09:41

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That stat was from and 1981 study and published in the book ‘Corporate Flight’ - based on jobs going overseas and never coming back. Not so easy to compare it to today’s problem with a good percentage of   jobs that may come back in 3 months, a year , etc. Also, the government didn’t do much to help in the early 80's as opposed to the massive, instant bailouts we have today.

I haven’t seen any good stats yet, but what percentage of new filers haven’t even permanently lost their jobs, but were furloughed for 90 days so t hat they can collect unemployment?

A similar 2005 study quoted that “ 37,000 deaths” stat, and last week the author had this to say:

Thomas says things are different today, but those old studies may help us understand the hidden problems that the coronavirus is causing.

“I would hesitate to extrapolate from the old estimates of corporate flight as a means of quantifying present circumstances,” Thomas wrote to me in an email, adding that “there are too many variables involved now to assert definitive cause and effect between unemployment and the litany of health consequences cited in the 1981 study.”

It’s obviously still a valid concern and a good topic for sensible debate. Lots of numbers to crunch, and lessons to learn.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Thomas Donohue 05/04/2020 at 09:49

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Actually, the BBC did a nice piece on that stat after the movie came out. The “fact-checker” claimed he didn’t even believe it when he first read the script, but made the rounds of the research and came away a believer.

There “might” be ameliorating factors today. OTOH, in most areas of the country hardest hit? Housing costs and medical premiums are completely out of control. It’s pretty well documented that “medically induced bankruptcies” went up, not down, after “healthcare was fixed”. And, even going into this, consumer debt was at levels far higher than the bubble in 2008-9. Many macro factors are not encouraging, even for those of us who remember the 1981 recession .

shop-teacher > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 10:45

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I may be a relentless optimist when it comes to people, but this whole mess has actually given me more hope for the future. Society has not collapsed. If anything, I feel like it has gotten stronger.

I have had more conversations with more neighbors (from a very safe distance) in the last six weeks, than the entire time I have lived in this house (10 years next month ).

A few blocks away, a neighbor set up a table full of food under a canopy. It is unattended, and there is a sign that simply reads “Take what you need. Leave what you can.” It is always well stocked, and the people I have seen come to take food, look very much in need of it.

We have been ordering take out once a week, from our favorite local restaurants, to help them get through this mess . I’ve asked them all how their businesses are doing (I don’t use delivery services, I go pick it up myself) . The answer has universally been that they’re doing ok. They’re clearly in survival mode, but they all seem to be surviving.

Distance learning has been deeply weird, but not all bad. My classes have been made optional, to ease the workload on students and their families. Participation has predictably dropped, but I have made some very deep and meaningful connections with those who are still participating. I’ve learned things about those kids, that I never ever would have known in normal times. I so miss being at school with them though.

I feel so deeply badly for those who have lost their income. I grew up in a self-employed household, so I lived those ups and downs throughout my childhood. I’m glad we have unemployment insurance to help get through times. That is an example of how  society pulls together.

I can’t wait for life to go back to something resembling normal, but I do think we need to take it slow and smart, so we don’t put ourselves into a worse situation long term.

We’ve lost more Americans to this fucking virus in the last couple months, than we lost in Vietnam. This mess is deeply deeply fucked.

But we shall get through this. Society will persevere. People will overcome. We will be stronger and smarter on the other side of this.

Enjoy your last day on the road. I shan’t be taking my kids on the road for a while, but we are not staying couped up in the house. I’m so happy that my girls like each other. They bicker and fight like any siblings, but they’re a good team. They’re hamming it up on the front porch making silly videos as I type this. Life is still good.

Also, I cannot fucking wait for Idiot Fest! This is going to be the biggest scooteringest time EVAR!!!

SPAMBot - Horse Doctor > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 11:54

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Have a great drive. I took the truck on a loop up to Frazier Mt, over to the 33, and back down to the 101 on Saturday. It was nice just getting out of the house and doing something different. Safe travels and pet Toby for me!

smobgirl > ImmoralMinority 05/04/2020 at 23:09

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I’m trying to find a place to camp in/near Albuquerque so I don’t have to drive 11 hours home in one go and there is NOTHING (besides KOAs). I understand but I’m also so frustrated. It must absolutely suck for permanent  RV residents.